Exposing the Flawed Reasoning behind one Conclusion of the Most Recent IC Assessment of the AHI

Will the new ODNI Correct the Record?

Over the last 9 years the Intelligence Community (IC) has been yanking our collective chain on the Havana Syndrome and it Anomalous Health Incidents (AHI).

In January 2025, the Office of the Director on National intelligence (ODNI, an office currently occupied by Tulsi Gabbard) released its most recent Updated Assessment of Anomalous Health Incidents that contains new information since the publication of the March 2023 Assessment.

Here I would like to address just one significant change in the “Foreign Actor Capability” line of inquiry. The updated document reads:

Two components (of the IC Assessment) have changed their judgement since 2023… One component assesses it is “likely” a foreign actor has an RF antipersonnel capability, and that this capability can cause biological effects consistent with some of the symptoms reported as possible AHIs.

But this information did not change the overall conclusion of the Assessment because the majority, the five IC components continue to assess it as “highly unlikely”. In other words, the Assessment takes a simple majority as the overall conclusion in the foreign actor capability.

But wait a minute, is this a sound methodology? Doesn’t one “likely” opinion nullify the negative opinions? This is how we acquire knowledge, - not by counting opinions, but by using data to falsify hypotheses. In this sense, one “likely” conclusion cancels out all the “highly unlikely” assessments. The document conflates consensus with conclusion. And we all know how detrimental the power of consensus could be…

This “Intelligence” Community Assessment is an assault to our Intelligence. The cover-up has to stop. Americans deserve the truth. Tulsi, we are counting on you!